Posts Tagged ‘The MOST Strategy’

Open Letter to Dr. Kevin Whitburn

Tuesday, March 16th, 2010

Dear Dr. Kevin Whitburn:

Last week I, like many blackjack writers, expressed skepticism about your new MOST Strategy and its claims to lead to a player edge of 1-6% without the involvement of card counting. In response, you replied with a condescending message that basically states that just because I don’t understand the strategy doesn’t mean it doesn’t work.

You, of course, are right. Many things work that I don’t understand, which is why I am offering you the chance to prove to me that it does work. I am sure you are aware that there are a lot of scam artists out there and betting systems are a big gambling scam on the internet. While I’m not saying that you fall into that category, I am cautious about anyone who charges $150 to share their “secret.” I’m sure you understand.

If the MOST Strategy truly works as well as advertised, then it is a groundbreaking achievement in the world of blackjack and of course I would be happy to tell everyone to use it. Of course, I don’t want to spend $150 of my money to find out.

I guess what gives me the most pause concerning your system is that, by your own admission, you cannot prove that it works in a casino setting. You admit that “to demonstrate a clear winner in the untidy realm of games-of-chance is tougher than you might think” and you admit that you can’t “reliably separate out the underlying win-signal from the random luck it’s buried in.” And that seems to be the problem with your mathematical system that has not been tested in a casino: It doesn’t take into account the luck of the draw.

You also claim that the MOST Strategy “produces accelerated returns far exceeding those of aggressive growth investments in financial markets, but without the market uncertainties.” Oh, so your strategy is a better investment than the stock market? That’s a pretty bold statement considering the high element of chance in the game of blackjack, especially considering that MOST, at its core, is just a complex table-exiting strategy.

Your strategy is a math-based strategy that doesn’t require the player to be good at math, yet is better than basic strategy with card counting and even the stock market. You claim all of this despite not testing it in a casino by stating that “the math can actually cross-check itself.” Dr. Whitburn, since you are a scientist, I am sure you are aware that, generally speaking, scientists don’t go around professing that something is fact because of mathematical equations. The math is important, of course, but the theory also has to be tested. I remember learning about the Scientific Method in school. Of course, I also remember that it is necessary to eliminate variables (such as luck) in the experiment. Good luck with that.

Dr. Whitburn, I hope you do not see this letter as a personal attack. On the contrary, I hope you will see this as an opportunity to prove to me and to the world that the MOST Strategy does deliver on its promises. If you are willing to provide me with a complete free copy of your e-book, I would be happy to test your strategy in a casino environment and then let everybody know the results. As I said, if your strategy works then this is a monumental achievement in blackjack and I would be happy to admit that I was wrong to be skeptical. I look forward to hearing from you.

New Book Promises to Help You Beat Blackjack

Thursday, March 11th, 2010

Well, if you’ve been wondering how to beat the house at blackjack, you need look no further, claims Dr. Kevin Whitburn. The good doctor has released a new e-book called The MOST Strategy and it promises to give the player an edge of 1% to 6%. That’s right. He claims that his strategy leads to a 1-6% player advantage rather than a house edge.

In a press release, Dr. Whitburn claims to have spent years devising his new strategy, which does not involve counting cards. It is about playing in a way “that allows you to know when to leave the table with a statistical advantage.” He also says that his technique is done “without any deception at all.” I guess that is supposed to mean that the casinos will have no problem with you using this strategy and cleaning them out.

Whitburn doesn’t explain exactly what his method entails, because if he did you wouldn’t need to buy the book, but he says it involves varying your bankroll so that it’s “in harmony” and that when you’re in harmony, “you’ll know when it’s time to go.” When it’s time to leave, you need only leave that table and can go to another table and start playing right away.

Whitburn admits that it’s difficult to impossible to prove whether his system actually works in casino play due to the large number of variables (including chance), but he insists that the math checks out. If you go to Dr. Whitburn’s website, which is named after his strategy, you can buy his e-book for a low price of $150. That’s a small investment for the money you will soon be making at the casino, right?

I have not read The MOST Strategy, so I can’t attest to what’s in it, but I will say this: When something seems too good to be true, it usually is not true. As soon as gambling was invented, there were con artists going around selling secrets to winning and beating the casinos. Most people selling secret gambling strategies are nothing but snake oil salesman. I don’t know if Dr. Whitburn is, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

I can find no independent information on Dr. Whitburn, but he claims his education is in chemistry and he has been an “occasional blackjack player at Connecticut and Florida casinos.” It sounds like Dr. Whitburn is selling nothing more than a betting system and I have yet to find a betting system that works. He claims that by using his strategy you will know when to leave a table, but due to the random nature of the drawing of cards, each hand is independent of the last and any streaks that you’re on are just luck.

That is, of course, unless you’re counting cards. By counting cards you can tell when the deck is rich in tens and when it is, the odds are tilted toward the player. However, Dr. Whitburn’s strategy does not involve counting cards. Instead, he says “you count the chips in front of you.” So again, it seems like a simple betting system – one that is being sold for $150.

I cannot say with certainty that Dr. Whitburn’s system does not deliver on his promises, but the fact is that even in his own press release he admits that he cannot say with certainty that it does. I caution all of my readers to avoid betting systems and any secret strategies that are for sale. Instead, stick to basic strategy, which can lower the house edge to 0.5%, and you can even tilt the odds in your favor by counting cards in addition to basic strategy.