Posts Tagged ‘blackjack basic strategy’

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Blackjack odds: How shuffle machines hurt your wallet

Wednesday, September 8th, 2010

In the game of blackjack, there are a lot of things that can affect your bankroll. While the odds are the same as long as you stick to blackjack basic strategy, there are a number of things that can cause you to win or lose money faster. One such example is the shuffling machines.

Few dealers shuffle by hand today. Most use a shuffling machine, which can be a continuous shuffling machine or a non-continuous shuffling machine. In both cases, use of the machine results in you losing money faster, because it allows you to play more hands in the same period of time. Since, even with perfect strategy, the house has a slight edge, more hands means more money lost. There is also a difference between the two types of shuffling machines, though.

Continuous shuffling machines randomly shuffle the discards after every round is played. Compared to shuffling by hand, these machines allow you to play up to 20% more hands per hour, meaning you could lose 20% more money. With non-continuous automatic shufflers, an entire deck of cards is shuffled at a time once the deck is used up. Because the non-continuous machines require a stop in the action to shuffle cards, they do not allow as many hands to be played as with a continuous shuffling machine. However, it still moves the game faster than shuffling by hand. Therefore, a hand-shuffled game is the best to play, followed by a game with a non-continuous automatic shuffler. Your last choice should be a blackjack game with continuous shuffling machine.

The speed of play isn’t the only way the shuffling machines hurt your odds, though. If you are a card counter, those machines can really be a thorn in your side. For a card counter, the shuffling machine – especially the continuous shuffler – makes card counting much more difficult, because cards you counted as being used could suddenly be put back in play. Some players are able to use shuffle tracking with a continuous shuffler, though that can be combated with batch shufflers.

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Blackjack odds: Will dealer bust with a 5 or 6 up card?

Monday, August 30th, 2010

Anyone schooled on blackjack basic strategy breathes a sigh of relief when they see the dealer draw a five or six as an up card. They know those are the worst dealer hands and they feel they have a good chance of winning. Players who don’t understand the blackjack odds, though, might assume that the dealer will bust and they will win. The truth is, that will happen less than half of the time.

The correct strategy against a dealer five or six up card is to stand if you have a 12 or higher, but that doesn’t guarantee success. Players look at the dealer up card and assume that they have a 15 or 16, given the fact that there are more ten cards in a deck than any other. However, there are only 4/13 odds of the dealer having a ten in the hole.

If the dealer has a 5 as an up card, there is a 4/13 chance that he has a hand of 15 because four cards (ten, jack, queen, king) give him that total. The dealer has a 7/13 chance of having any kind of stiff hand, which is a hand of 12-16. All stiff hands have good chances of busting, but your odds might not be as good as you think.

If the dealer has a five as an up card, he has a 41.8% chance of busting. He has a 12.2% chance of finishing with a hand total of 17, an identical chance of drawing an 18, an 11.8% chance of drawing a hand of 19, an 11.2% chance of finishing with a hand of 20 and a 10.8% chance of finishing with a hand of 21.

If the dealer has a six as an up card, he has a 42.3% chance of busting. He has a 16.6% chance of drawing a 17, a 10.6% chance of drawing an 18 or 19, a 10.2% chance of drawing a 20 and a 9.7% chance of drawing a 21.

What that means is if you have a hand of 12 and stand against a dealer 5 up card, you only have a 41.8% chance of winning the hand, because if the dealer finishes with any of those other totals, you lose. However, standing in that situation is still the best strategy because the risk of you busting if you take a hit.

Understanding the odds leads to making better decisions and getting more enjoyment out of the game of blackjack. Too many players get upset when they lose against a dealer five or six because they take a win for granted in that situation. Though your odds are good, they aren’t as good as most people think.

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Blackjack odds: Drawing a natural blackjack

Tuesday, August 10th, 2010

A natural blackjack is the best hand in the game. Players search for those ace-ten combinations. They love the prospect of a 3:2 payout and a guaranteed win (unless the dealer also has a natural blackjack). It’s the reason card counters keep track of the number of tens that have been played. It’s the reason we get excited by getting dealt an ace and worried when the dealer shows an ace. But how likely are you to draw a natural blackjack?

The likelihood of drawing a natural blackjack depends on the number of decks in play. Assuming an infinite number of decks, you or the dealer have a 4.73% chance of drawing a natural blackjack, which is once every 21 hands. If you’re worried about your blackjack being spoiled by the dealer also drawing a blackjack, which would lead to a push, that only happens 0.22% of the time, or once out of 450 hands.

If you or the dealer already have an ace, there is a 30.77% chance – or four out of 13 – of turning it into a natural blackjack. If you or the dealer already have a ten, there is a 7.69% chance – one out of 13 – of turning it into a blackjack.

The chances of these events happening whether at an online casino or land-based differs depending on the number of decks. In an eight-deck game, which is the most common at casino blackjack tables, there is a slightly higher chance of drawing a natural blackjack: 4.745%. In a six-deck blackjack game, you have a 4.749% chance of drawing a natural blackjack. There is a 4.756% chance of getting a blackjack in a four-deck game and in a single-deck game, the odds are raised to 4.83%. As you might have noticed, the odds increase as the number of decks decrease.

It is good to keep in mind the odds of drawing a blackjack, particularly when either you or the dealer have an ace or a ten card. Knowing your odds is key to successfully executing blackjack basic strategy.

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Blackjack: Early surrender v. late surrender

Friday, August 6th, 2010

Though the move should be done sparingly, in certain situations surrendering is a wise decision in the game of blackjack. Forfeiting half of your bet automatically is usually not the best option, but in certain circumstances, basic blackjack strategy says to cut your losses. It is important to keep separate the two types of surrender, though: early surrender and late surrender.

First of all, whether you’re playing at an online casino or at a brick and mortar casino, you need to know that not all blackjack tables offer surrender as an option. It is usually available because the house counts on players using the surrender option when they shouldn’t, which amounts to throwing money away. Sometimes you cannot surrender, though. When you can, the blackjack table is only going to offer one of the two types of surrender. Therefore, it’s important to know which type is allowed.

Some people think that with a late surrender, you can surrender late in the hand, like right before you get to that card that would bust you or right before the dealer draws his last card. That’s not the case. It’s really quite simple. If the blackjack table has an early surrender, you choose whether or not to surrender before the dealer checks his hole card. With a late surrender, you decide after he checks. Let’s put it into a scenario.

The dealer gives you your cards and then deals himself a hole card and a ten card. If early surrender is allowed, you would then be asked if you want to surrender. If you do, it doesn’t matter what he has as a hole card. Even if it turns out he has a natural blackjack, you still only lose half of your bet. If the blackjack table has a late surrender, though, the dealer will check his hole card to see if he has a blackjack first. If he does, you lose. If he does not have a natural blackjack, he will then ask if you want to surrender.

For that reason, an early surrender is more beneficial to players. An early surrender allows players to save themselves from a natural blackjack whereas with a late surrender, the dealer checks for one first. For that reason, proper usage (according to basic strategy) of a late surrender only trims 0.08% off of the house edge. However, proper usage of early surrender reduces the house edge by 0.6%.

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Blackjack Tips: Cards Face Up or Face Down?

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

If you have been to enough casinos, you have noticed that the tables have cards dealt in one of two ways. They are either dealt face up or face down. In this blog, I will give you blackjack tips on which table to use.

First, you need to know that blackjack is a game of etiquette and there are different rules depending on how the cards are dealt. If the cards are dealt to players face up, you’re not allowed to touch the cards, including your own. Since they are facing up, there is no need to touch them. You can see them just fine already. By not letting the players touch the cards, the casino protects themselves against players marking the cards, swapping cards or engaging in other forms of cheating.

In blackjack games where the cards are dealt face down, it is a handheld game. In these games, you pick up the cards and hold them, but there are also specific rules for the handling of those cards. For one thing, you are only allowed to touch the cards with one hand. Again, this is to minimize the possibility of sleight of hand tricks. The cards must also be held over the table at all times. This is to avoid you hiding the cards below the table and making a switch.

You might be wondering which version of the blackjack game is better to play. If you are a card counter, my blackjack tip is to play at a game where the cards are dealt face up. That way, you can see what cards the other players have and it makes it easier to count cards and determine how many tens are in play. If the cards are dealt face down, you can only track your own cards and the dealer’s cards, making card counting more difficult.

If you are not a card counter and rely solely on blackjack basic strategy, it really doesn’t matter which game you play. I prefer face up games but that is only my personal preference. They also are more traditional. In both forms of blackjack, basic strategy can reduce the house edge to as low as 0.5%.

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Blackjack strategy: playing the dealer

Thursday, July 8th, 2010

Today I read a blackjack “tip” from a supposed gambling expert. That expert said that you should “aim to get closer to 21, not to beat the dealer.” I was shocked, since this is exactly the opposite of what I advise.

In the game of blackjack, the goal is not to get as close as you can to 21, though that is sometimes what people say. The goal is to beat the dealer. Whether you beat the dealer with a hand of 20 or a hand of 4, you get the same reward. Sure, most of the time you want to get close to 21 because the dealer is going to hit until he gets to 17 or better. However, people who follow a strategy of trying to get close to 21 often play too aggressively and hit when they should stand.

Playing to get closer to 21 ignores the chance of the dealer busting. If the dealer busts, you win with any hand, as long as you don’t bust as well. For example, if you have a hand of 12, that’s not very close to 21. Therefore, people following a “get as close to 21 as possible” strategy would take a hit regardless of the dealer’s hand. However, if the dealer has a hand of 4, 5 or 6, blackjack basic strategy says to stand.

You would stand on those hands because the dealer is likely to have a stiff hand, which is a hand between 12 and 16. With those hands, the person is likely to bust if taking a hit. Since you also have a stiff hand, taking a hit is risky. In this case, it’s best to stand and hope that the dealer busts. How likely is he to bust? Let’s break them down.

If the dealer has a hand of 14, there are five cards (3, 4, 5, 6, 7) he can draw that would beat your hand. The dealer can draw two cards (ace, 2) that would leave him with another stiff hand. There are six cards (8, 9, 10, J, Q, K) that would bust his hand. Therefore, if the dealer has a 14, there is a 8/13 chance that the card he draws will be bad for him and good for you.

Now let’s look at if the dealer has a hand of 16. Here your odds are even worse. There are only five cards (ace, 2, 3, 4, 5) that will help his hand and the other eight cards (6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K) will bust him. Combine that with the fact that, with a 12, you have a stiff hand, you can see that the odds are best to stand and hope the dealer busts.

For that reason, you should ignore any advise that says you should get as close to 21 as possible. While that is part of the strategy, it is secondary to beating the dealer. Often, getting as close to 21 as you can gives you the best chance of beating the dealer, but that is not always the case.

As always, this strategy works in online casinos as well as in the brick and mortar variety.

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Blackjack Strategy: Never Split a Pair of Tens

Thursday, July 1st, 2010

Blackjack basic strategy is important if you want to lower the house edge for the game to an acceptable level. If you’re reading this blackjack blog, you probably already know that. Sometimes people deviate from basic strategy, though. This is done because they forget the real strategy and because they use flawed logic to come up with what they think is the answer. On occasion, they also do so because they think that basic strategy is wrong.

One common mistake that makes me cringe is when people split a pair of tens. You should never split a pair of tens, but people do. When they do, it is based on what would otherwise be good strategy. Tens are good cards to start a hand with. In fact, next to an ace, it’s the best card to draw with your first card. The thinking then is if you have a pair of tens, you can split it and you will have two hands starting with a ten, which is twice as good.

People who succumb to that type of thinking forget to do one simple thing: add their cards. A pair of tens equals a hand of 20, which can only be beaten by a hand of 21. Needless to say, a hand of 20 is a great hand to have and you don’t want to give it up. But what are the odds if you do?

Starting a hand with a 10, you have a 1/13 chance of improving your hand, since only an ace would give you a 21. You have a 4/13 chance of ending up with another hand of 20 (by drawing a 10, J, Q or K), which is what you had before splitting the pair. That leaves a 9/13 chance that you will end up with a hand worse than 20.

That is for one hand. By splitting a pair of tens, you’re starting two hands with a ten, which means both hands have a 69% chance of ending up worse than where you started. With that in mind, it is clearly a better idea to stand, take your hand of 20 and hope to beat the dealer. After all, only a dealer 21 can beat you and a dealer 20 will only tie you. You win against any other dealer hand.

As always, basic blackjack strategy works in online casinos as well as the brick and mortar variety.

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Blackjack Strategy: Dealer Ace

Thursday, June 17th, 2010

This is the last part in my 10-part series on covering blackjack basic strategy by what up card the dealer shows. Are you sad? Excited? Is it like how depressed I was when it hit me that LOST was coming to an end? Actually, forget I mentioned that. It’s a sore subject.

As always, this strategy works just as well in an online casino as in the brick and mortar variety. Here I am discussing the strategy for when the dealer shows an ace as the up card.
The first thing you need to know is that when the dealer shows an ace, that’s bad news. You’re probably going to lose. The dealer might have a natural blackjack, in which case you’ll lose before even drawing more cards. Even if he doesn’t he will have a soft hand that is likely high in value. When the dealer has an ace as an up card, your odds of winning are slim. With that out of the way, here’s the strategy.

You should always hit with an 8 or less, because you have a low card and no risk of busting. Against a dealer ace up card, you should also hit anything from a 9 to a hard 15. You don’t want to stand with any of these hands because you are likely to be outdrawn by the dealer. You don’t want to double, even with a 10 or 11, because even with those cards your hand likely isn’t better than the dealer’s.

With a hard 16, you should surrender if allowed. If not, take a hit. You should surrender because a hard 16 is the worst hand in blackjack. It’s only high enough to win if the dealer busts yet it has high odds (7/13) of busting when you take a hit. For that reason, your best bet is to surrender half of your bet 100% of the time, rather than losing all of your bet considerably more often than that.

With a hard 17 or better you should stand against any dealer up card, including an ace. Those hands are high enough that you can win even without the dealer busting and you are more likely to bust than to improve your hand by taking a hit.

With a soft 13-18, you should take a hit against a dealer ace. There is no risk of busting with a soft hand. In addition, you are likely to be outdrawn by standing, so your best chance is to try to improve your hand. With a soft 19 or better, though, you should stand. That is because you are more likely to reduce the quality of your hand than to improve it. Also, your hand may be high enough to win.

When it comes to splitting pairs, you should be conservative against a dealer ace. Since you are not likely to win, you don’t often want to double the bet. With a pair of twos through sevens, you should take a hit. You should split a pair of eights, though, because you’re splitting up a stiff hand (16) and giving yourself a chance for two good hands (18).

You should stand with a pair of nines or tens against a dealer ace. You have good hands (18, 20) and are likely to bust by drawing another card. Though you still don’t have great odds – due to the dealer’s hand – your best odds are to stand and hope you outdraw the dealer.

If you have a pair of aces, then congratulations! You actually have a hand better than the dealer. In that case, split the pair. If you do, you have two hands starting with an ace versus one dealer hand starting with an ace. The odds are now in your favor, so good luck! So the next time you’re playing blackjack at the casino, be sure to stick to this strategy for the best chance of success.

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Blackjack Strategy: Dealer 10 Card

Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

Blackjack basic strategy is a must if you want to minimize your losses and reduce the house edge to an acceptable level. In teaching basic strategy, I am covering it from a variety of angles. In this series, of which this is the penultimate post, I am covering it based on what up card the dealer shows. In this post, we are dealing with a 10 as the dealer’s up card. As always, when I say 10, I mean any card with a value of 10, which includes a 10, Jack, Queen or King. This strategy works at an online casino as well as at the brick and mortar variety.

The first thing you need to know when you see a 10 as the dealer’s up card is that the dealer likely has a good hand. If the dealer has a 2-6 as a hole card, he has a stiff hand. However, any other card (7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K, A) gives the dealer a 17 or better. Therefore, the odds are against you when the dealer shows a 10. For that reason, strategy for splitting pairs and doubling is very conservative and you play your hand with the idea that the dealer is not likely to bust.

As always, if you have a hand of 8 or lower, you should take a hit. There is no risk of busting and your hand isn’t good enough to stand. Against a dealer 10, you should also hit if you have a hand of 9 or 10. Against most cards, you would double with a 10 because of your likelihood of drawing a 20. However, the dealer is just as likely of having a 20 with a 10 in the hole as you are of drawing a 20. If you both have 20, it’s a draw. Those aren’t good enough odds to double the bet.

You should, however, double down with a hand of 11 versus a dealer 10. In this case, your likelihood of drawing a 21 versus a dealer 20 gives you an edge, so doubling the bet is good strategy.

If you have a hard 12-14, you should hit versus a dealer 10 up card. Those hands are only good enough to win if the dealer busts, and a dealer with a 10 up card is not likely to bust, so you don’t want to stand in this situation. If you have a 15 or 16, you should surrender if allowed, because you are much more likely to bust than to outdraw the dealer. The dealer likely has a good hand and a hard 15 and 16 are the two hands most likely to bust.

As always, if you have a hard 17 or better, you should stand, because there is a much better chance of busting than improving your hand. Also, even against a dealer 10 up card, a hand of 17 or better is pretty good.

If you have a soft 13-18, you should take a hit against a dealer 10 up card. In this situation, you are taking advantage of the fact that you can’t bust by taking a hit. If you have a soft 19 or better, though, you should stand, because you already have a great hand and taking a hit will most likely reduce the value of your hand.

If you have a pair of twos through sevens, you should take a hit against a dealer 10 up card. You don’t want to split the pairs because the dealer probably has a good hand and you don’t want to double the bet. However, if you have a pair of eights, you always want to split because you’re taking a soft hand (16) and giving yourself a chance of drawing two much better hands (18).

If you have a pair of nines, you should stand against a dealer 10 up card. You already have a hand of 18, and splitting the cards could only improve your hand by one, while giving the possibility of reducing the hand’s value. Also, you should be conservative about doubling against a dealer 10.

You should always stand with a pair of tens, no matter what card the dealer shows, because you already have a hand of 20. Conversely, you should always split a pair of aces, no matter what card the dealer has, because an ace is the most powerful card in blackjack and you want to start a hand with one as often as possible.

With this strategy in mind, you are free to win some money playing online blackjack at your favorite casino.

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Blackjack Strategy: Dealer 9 Card

Wednesday, June 9th, 2010

If you want to make money at blackjack – or at least reduce the amount that you lose – you need to learn, memorize and stick to basic strategy. Because of its importance, I am covering basic strategy from every conceivable angle. Here is what to do when the dealer shows a 9 as the up card. This strategy works with online blackjack as well as a game at a brick and mortar casino.

First of all, keep in mind that due to the prevalence of 10 cards in the deck, if the dealer is showing a 9, he has good odds of having a hand of 19. Basic strategy takes into account the likelihood of the dealer having a 10 in the hole and the player and dealer drawing a 10 when taking a hit. Since a dealer stands on a 17 or better, he is not likely to bust with a 9 as an up card.

First of all, as always, you should hit if you have an 8 or less, because there is no risk of busting and your cards aren’t good. If the dealer shows a 9, you should also hit if you have a 9. Again, there is no risk of busting, but your hand isn’t really good enough to double down.

If you have a 10 or 11, you should double down against a dealer 9. That is because you have a good hand. Upon drawing the next card, you have a good chance of drawing a 20 or 21, which are tough to beat. Given the strength of those potential hands, you should double the money on your bet.

If you have a hard 12-15, you should hit against a dealer 9 up card. Thought you have a stiff hand, it is too low to outdraw the dealer is he has a 19 or better. In fact, you can only win with these hands if the dealer busts. For that reason, your odds are slightly better taking a hit than standing, even though you have a good chance of busting when doing so.

If you have a hard 16, though, you should surrender against a dealer 9 if that is an option. With this combination, whether you hit or stand you have approximately a 77% chance of losing the hand. Therefore, in this situation it is actually better to lose 50% of your money 100% of the time, as is the case with surrendering. If surrender is not allowed, you should take a hit.

If you have a hard 17 or better, you should always stand, no matter what card the dealer shows. There are too many cards that will bust you and not enough that will improve your hand.

For soft hands, you should hit if you have a soft 13-18 against a dealer 9 up card. That is because, again, the dealer is unlikely to bust, so a hand below 18 is unlikely to win. For that reason, and because there is no risk of busting with a soft hand, you should take a hit and hope to improve your hand.

If you have a soft 19 or better, you should stand against a dealer 9 up card. If the dealer has a 19, you would tie with a 19 and win with a better hand, so there is no reason to risking drawing a card that reduces the value of your hand.

You should only split pairs conservatively against a dealer 9 card. That is because the dealer likely has a good hand, so you don’t want to double your bet unless you have a great hand. For that reason, you should hit a pair of twos, threes or fours.

You should double down if you have a pair of fives against a dealer 9 card. He may have a good hand, but yours is better and by taking one more card, you have a good chance of drawing a 20, which can only lose to a 21.

If you have a pair of sixes or sevens, you should take a hit against a dealer 9 up card. Splitting could give you two hands of 16 and 17, which could very well be outdrawn by the dealer’s hand. Therefore, you don’t want to double the bet.

You should split a pair of eights or nines, though. This splits up a hand of 16 (a stiff hand) or 18 and gives you a good chance of drawing two hands of 18 or 19. Given how bad a 16 is and how good hands of 18 and 19 are, combined with the fact that the dealer likely has an 19, this is the wise play.

You should never split a pair of tens, because you already have a hand of 20, and you should always split a pair of aces, since aces are the most powerful card in blackjack. They are the best because you can’t bust with a soft hand and you can use an ace to draw a natural blackjack, which pays 3:2.

The above strategy works in online casinos as well as the brick and mortar variety.

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