Basic Blackjack Odds
Learn The Basic Odds To Playing Winning Blackjack
The odds of blackjack are important in understanding how the house edge works and how you as a player can severely minimize it or in some cases even turn it to your advantage. The basic advantage that the dealer or house gets from the game of blackjack comes from the fact that they are the last to act in the game. By having this rule, they are letting all others at the table play before them and thereby increase the chances that the player will bust or go over 21 before the dealer has to act. In a basic casino blackjack game with 6 decks, the house advantage is approximately 8% over the player. This means that over the long run the house will win 58% of the time with the player winning 42% of the time, an obvious disadvantage. By simply applying basic strategy as seen in our basic blackjack strategy chart, the player can greatly reduce the house edge to 0.5% giving the house a 50.5% advantage over the player meaning that the player will win 49.5% of the time which is much more favourable. Now you may be wondering why you should play at all if you are at an obvious disadvantage. The reason is "runs", where a player goes on a continuous winning streak while playing. Keep in mind, these percentages are averages over millions of hands so it is very possible to consistently win in one session of playing. Below are some charts to give you an idea of various player advantages and how the odds vary according to a number of variables:
Player Advantage Based On Dealers Show Card
| Dealer Show Card | % Of Dealer Bust | Player Advantage % |
| 2 | 35.30% | 9.8% |
| 3 | 37.56% | 13.4% |
| 4 | 40.28% | 18.0% |
| 5 | 42.89% | 23.2% |
| 6 | 42.28% | 23.9% |
| 7 | 25.99% | 14.3% |
| 8 | 23.86% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 23.34% | -4.3% |
| J,Q,K | 21.42% | -16.9% |
| A | 11.65% | -16.0% |
Probability of Busting Based On Player Card Total
| Hand Value | % Of Busting If Hit |
| 21 | 100% |
| 20 | 92% |
| 19 | 85% |
| 18 | 77% |
| 17 | 69% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 11 or Less | 0% |
For more advanced odds charts check out our Blackjack Odds By Rule section or our Blackjack Odds By Game section.
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